Mortgage and refinance rates today, July 26, 2022

Peter Warden
Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports Editor
July 26, 2022 - 7 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates moved moderately higher yesterday. But there have been only two days in July when they’ve been lower, according to Mortgage News Daily. So no need to panic — yet.

So far this morning. mortgage rates today look likely to fall. That follows an International Monetary Fund bulletin earlier that slashed growth forecasts around the world and said, “The global economy ... is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook.” However, the IMF also forecast yet higher inflation that could last for longer than previously expected. And mortgage rates could change direction later if markets notice that.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 5.751% 5.785% +0.12%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 4.948% 5.007% -0.08%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 5.509% 5.566% -0.03%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 5.025% 5.122% +0.02%
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 5.948% 6.742% +0.16%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 5.179% 5.666% +0.15%
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 5.212% 5.434% +0.06%
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 5.034% 5.399% -0.04%
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Starting today, we may be in for a period of renewed volatility. That’s because we’re due three blockbuster economic events (one announcement and two key reports) over the following three days. Read on for the details.

Of course, we won’t know the outcome of those (nor their effects on mortgage rates) until they happen. But strap in for what may turn out to be a bumpy ride. Today, investors may well be trading into positions (laying bets, to you and me) in anticipation of these events.

But, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term must remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 2.74% from 2.82%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices climbed to $98.01 from $95.50 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices inched down to $1,718 from $1,719 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — edged lower to 35 from 38 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Yesterday, I listed this week’s three big economic events:

  1. Tomorrow’s announcement of the size of the Fed’s next interest rate hike
  2. Thursday’s first reading of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) during the second quarter
  3. Friday’s big inflation report for June, which is the one favored by the Fed (personal consumption and expenditures or PCE)

Obviously, nobody knows for sure what any of those will say. But here are the likely (but not certain) consequences for mortgage rates of each outcome:

  1. Fed rate hike is less than 0.75% (75 basis points): mortgage rates fall. If higher than 75 basis points, rates might rise
  2. GDP growth is slower than 0.3% or a contraction: mortgage rates fall. If higher than 0.3%, those rates might rise
  3. Core PCE price index is below 0.5%: mortgage rates fall. If that index is higher than 0.5%, those rates might rise

The last two figures I used there are today’s reports of analysts’ and economists’ consensus forecasts for each event, reported by MarketWatch. Those can change daily. In theory, if actual figures match forecasts there should be little movement in reaction in markets.

My suggestions for how mortgage rates might move are based on markets’ twin current obsessions: recession and inflation. When they’re more scared of inflation, mortgage rates tend to rise. When they’re more frightened of recession, those rates tend to drop. So, for example, if the core PCE price index shows inflation is running hotter than expected, mortgage rates are more likely to rise than fall.

How you might use this information

How can this information help you? Well, you could look out for each announcement and lock or continue to float based on what they say. The Fed announcement is at 2 p.m. (ET) tomorrow and the other two reports should be published at 8:30 a.m. (ET) on the following two days.

However, note that markets are especially unpredictable at the moment. So there are no guarantees they’ll act as I suggested.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May and June were kinder months.

Freddie’s Jul. 21 report puts that same weekly average for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.54% (with 0.8 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5.51%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining two quarters of 2022 (Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first two quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. The latest forecasts all appeared around Jul. 21.

ForecasterQ3/22Q4/22Q1/23Q2/23
Fannie Mae5.5%5.4% 5.3%5.1%
Freddie Mac5.5%5.4% 5.2%5.2%
MBA5.2%5.2% 5.0%5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.